Two weeks into the unexpected war with Iran, President Trump has found himself on the political defensive, knocked back by a series of setbacks that have eroded his once-firm standing with the American public. What this really means is that Trump's longstanding strategy of leveraging foreign policy to boost his domestic political fortunes has backfired spectacularly, leaving him vulnerable on multiple fronts.
Waning Public Support
Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump's approval rating has plummeted in the wake of the conflict, with a majority of Americans now disapproving of his handling of the situation with Iran. This represents a sharp reversal from earlier in the crisis, when the president briefly enjoyed a surge of support as he ordered the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. The bigger picture here is that Trump's go-it-alone approach and impulsive decision-making have eroded public trust, leaving him politically vulnerable as the war drags on with no clear end in sight.
Bipartisan Backlash
Trump's unilateral actions have also sparked rare bipartisan criticism in Congress, with even some Republican lawmakers voicing concerns about the administration's lack of a coherent strategy and the potential for the conflict to spiral out of control. As our recent analysis explored, Trump's divisive rhetoric and impulsive policymaking have alienated moderates in both parties, hampering his ability to rally support on Capitol Hill. This political isolation could prove costly as the White House seeks funding and authorization for its ongoing military operations.
Economic Fallout
The war's impact on the US economy has also emerged as a major political liability for Trump. The New York Times reports that the conflict has already led to spikes in oil prices and increased volatility in financial markets, raising fears of a broader economic slowdown. This comes at a particularly inopportune time for Trump, who has staked much of his reelection pitch on the strength of the US economy. As recent coverage has explored, the president's combative brand of politics has already put American industries in a precarious position - and the Iran crisis threatens to exacerbate those challenges.
The bottom line is that Trump's decision to escalate tensions with Iran has backfired spectacularly, leaving him politically vulnerable on multiple fronts. With public support waning, bipartisan criticism mounting, and economic headwinds intensifying, the president finds himself in a perilous position - one that could have far-reaching implications for the rest of his term and the 2020 election.